Forget about positional breakdown!  I just realized they are useless because a team never wins depending on the teams’ top players in their respective positions.  Team wins based on matchups regardless of positions. For example, a center can guard a forward for the most part of the game.

Lakers Offensive/Spurs Defensive Strategy

The Laker offense is an open secret.  Los Angeles will run the triangle most of the time.  In the second quarter, the bench mob will run, run and run.  If they can’t run, they will set the triangle.  In the fourth quarter’s final minutes, Kobe will create scoring opportunities and will run the triangle from time to time.  If they lead by two digits in the fourth, the triangle will be a staple.  Otherwise, Kobe will mostly be isolated - look for Odom or Pau to dive while Kobe penetrates though.

The Spurs will want Kobe to score a lot so his teammates can’t find a groove. Kobe has the tendency to be a “space cadet” too especially when his health is 100% (which allegedly is, excluding the most famous pinkie in the world).  Of course, Bowen will hack, I mean try to defend, Kobe.  (Watch out for the pinkie, Kobe!) Robert Horry will play significant minutes to try to break Kobe’s pinkie too.

Lakers Defensive/Spurs Offensive Strategy

The Spurs will try their pick and roll a high number of times.  How high is high?  Maybe at least 65 times - Gary Payton narrated how the Spurs ran the pick and roll against them in the 2004 western conference semifinals.  However, the Lakers seemed to defend Utah’s pick and roll effectively. It will be interesting how Parker reacts to the Laker defense of the pick and roll.  San Antonio’s success in the pick and roll will obviously rest on Parker’s shoulders.

San Antonio is also a great three-point shooting team.  Finley, Ginobili, Parker and Horry are all good shooters but Phil Jackson may dare only Parker to attempt the three and adjust from there.  Parker is deadliest when he drives but Gasol and Odom will be there waiting for him.  Again, how Parker reacts to this stance will spell the Spurs’ success.

Down low, Duncan will face a variety of defenders.  Gasol, Odom and Turiaf will give him different set of looks.  Gasol will try to defend him up high through blocks.  Turiaf will push and grab him.  Odom will do a little bit of both.

Lakers Defensive Matchups

Gasol/Odom/Turiaf vs. Duncan
Gasol/Odom/Turiaf vs. Oberto
Fisher vs. Parker
Bryant vs. Bowen
Walton/Radmanovic vs. Ginobili

Spurs Defensive Matchups

Bowen vs. Bryant
Oberto/Duncan/Thomas vs. Gasol
Oberto/Duncan/Thomas vs. Odom
Parker vs. Fisher
Ginobili vs. Walton/Radmanovic/Vujacic

Bench Tacticians

Phil Jackson and Greg Popovich are great coaches.  They are dead even in this category except that this playoffs, it was Popovich who had to adjust against their opponents.  The Hack-A-Shaq, Popovich admits, is ugly but it was his last recourse and he is the only coach, so far, to make it actually work. In the Hornets series, he found a way to confuse Paul in their pick and roll.  These adjustments have honed his coaching skills this playoffs. Jackson, on the other hand, didn’t have the chance to adjust significantly.  It was always the other coach who adjusted to the Lakers’ play.

X-Factors
The plays of Walton, Vujacic, Radmanovic and Farmar will determine the Lakers success in this series.  Vujacic and Radmanovic, in particular, should deliver from long distance to make the triangle efficient, otherwise, the Spurs will pack it in.

Believe it or not, Duncan’s effectiveness will be a deciding factor for the Spurs.  If he does a Boozer, the Spurs will have a hard time catching up with the Lakers.

Prediction

If no injuries happen to any of the major players from both teams, Lakers in 6.

• Series Breakdown: Lakers vs Jazz